2027 AEP Signals and Readiness Study

Overview

The AEP Signals and Readiness Study is a mid-year check on where seniors stand before AEP begins. It measures seniors’ pain points, service failures, and plan experiences.

For five years, the study has helped predict seniors’ final switch rates for the upcoming AEP. Carriers, agencies, and consultants use it to adjust marketing and sales strategies early, and to identify the members most at risk so retention plans start in time to matter.

It also guides product managers on rebate reallocation. A new discrete choice analysis shows how seniors allocate preference across supplemental benefits, so benefit changes can be planned with consumer data. For MedSupp, the study identifies where members facing steep premium increases hit their limit.

*Local Market Add-On – Available for this study!

Our local market oversample studies show how beneficiaries in specific service areas uniquely behave compared to the national data, providing plan managers with deeper insight for nuanced product, marketing, and sales needs.

What's Inside the Study

This mid-year assessment shows whether seniors plan to stay with their current coverage or start fresh elsewhere. Carriers, agencies, and consultants use it to adjust marketing and distribution and get the most out of AEP.

The study has a strong track record of predicting switch intention and senior sentiment heading into AEP. After years of market upset, it also gives an early read on seniors’ frustration with terminations and benefit disruption. That helps carriers plan positive PR campaigns around ANOC delivery. It also helps them identify the members most at risk, so retention plans are built early enough to matter.

Switching likelihood. Measures how likely seniors are to switch in the upcoming AEP.
Desired services. Shows which services seniors want from their carrier, so product managers can direct resources and budget toward programs that create positive experiences and build loyalty.
Sentiment toward HMOs. Examines how seniors view HMOs as carriers move away from PPOs toward plans that are more affordable to administer.
Benefit change and loyalty. Shows how MA plans can better manage benefit reallocation, and what drives loyalty among MedSupp members despite elevated premiums.

What’s New

Frustration with disruption. Measures seniors’ current frustration with market destabilization and lost benefits, and how it shapes their expectations heading into AEP.
Discrete choice analysis. Shows how seniors allocate preference across supplemental benefits, which helps carriers adjust after rebate reallocation.
MedSupp breaking point. Identifies where MedSupp members facing steep premium increases hit their limit, and how they’re bridging the payment gap.

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Explore Last Year’s Insights

2026 AEP Signals and Readiness Study SIP

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Insights from the 2026 Report:

Medicare Advantage Switching Is Becoming the New Normal
Following years of market disruption, Medicare Advantage switching continues to rise, reaching a historic 29% for 2026. Elevated at-risk member levels suggest switching activity will remain above historical norms heading into 2027, as plan terminations, benefit changes, and carrier exits continue to reshape the market.

Benefit Reductions Carry Significant Retention Risk
One in five MA members noticed reductions to their supplemental benefits for 2026, and benefit cuts continue to influence shopping behavior. Preventive dental coverage is particularly important, with one-third of MA members saying they would consider switching if those benefits were reduced. Seniors experiencing benefit losses are also willing to pay more for plans that restore the coverage they value.

Watch a Segment of the 2026 Presentation

5-Minute Take: 2026 AEP Signals and Readiness Study

To learn how you can access the presentation’s complete video, please visit our Deft on Demand page.

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