2027 Individual and Family Plan Shopping and Switching Study

Overview

The ACA market is entering its second year without enhanced premium tax credits. Many carriers assume the healthiest, most price-sensitive consumers left in year one. That assumption deserves a harder look.

Our 2027 Individual and Family Plan Shopping and Switching Study shows how consumers and their agents are selecting plans now that the first wave of “eAPTC droppers” has passed. Use the study to anticipate enrollment, plan selection, and switching behavior heading into the next open enrollment period.

*Local Market Add-On – Available for this study!

Our local market oversample studies show how consumers in specific service areas uniquely behave compared to the national data, providing plan managers with deeper insight for nuanced product, marketing, and sales needs.

What's Inside the Study

Enrollment outlook. Offers our read on whether enrollment will stabilize or keep declining over the next couple of years.
Trust, brand, and provider affiliation. Examines how each influences plan choice.
Reactions to cost changes. Shows how consumers respond to out-of-pocket cost increases and what now drives carrier switching and renewal, with the first round of droppers out of the market.
Healthy-rewards programs. Assesses whether a meaningful ACA market is emerging now that the consumers who struggled most with higher premiums have left.
Digital shopping journeys. Shows how consumers compare plans online.

What’s New

Healthier consumers in year two. Tests whether healthier consumers are more likely to leave the marketplace in the second year without enhanced premium tax credits. It examines plan decisions by health and utilization indicators to show how widespread the pattern is, and among whom.
IFP state segmentation. Groups states by growth and market maturity: High Growth/High Maturity, High Growth/Low Maturity, Low Growth/High Maturity, and Low Growth/Low Maturity. It also shows what each quadrant means for carriers operating there.

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Explore Last Year’s Insights

2026 Individual and Family Plan Shopping and Switching Study SIP

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Insights from the 2026 Report:

Affordability Pressures Are Reshaping the IFP Market
The expiration of enhanced subsidies, rising premiums, and increased out-of-pocket costs have created significant affordability challenges across the marketplace. Consumers most impacted include older adults, those above the 400% FPL threshold, and members enrolled in above-benchmark plans. Even among those who left the market, many indicated they would have remained enrolled if premiums and subsidy support had stayed stable.

Market Volumes Are Declining, But New Member Acquisition Opportunities Remain
While overall marketplace enrollment declined, approximately 3.4 million consumers entered the IFP market for 2026. At the same time, older adults nearing Medicare eligibility were less likely to enter the market, suggesting fewer consumers are using ACA coverage as a bridge to Medicare. Despite enrollment challenges, significant acquisition opportunities remain for carriers targeting first-time marketplace shoppers.